When will AI surpass humans? Final countdown to AGI

When will we have AGI, or human-level AI? That's the question on everyone's minds, and in this video I gathered together predictions from various experts to try to come up with an answer.

The temptation as humans is to look at progress in the past when predicting progress in the future. But this assumes a linear technological progress, which is not the case. Technology advances exponentially. Creating predictions that take this exponential growth into account is very difficult, especially because each individual technology advances through an S-curve and eventually levels out, giving way to newer technologies.

Hence, a lot of predictions are going to be too high because they assume linear progress. The trick is to exclude the predictions that are too high while not jumping to the most optimistic predictions immediately. At the end of the video, I make my own prediction about the arrival of AGI.


Scaling up learning across many different robot types
https://deepmind.google/discov....er/blog/scaling-up-l

How Soon is Now? Predicting the Expected Arrival Date of AGI- Artificial General Intelligence
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/p....apers.cfm?abstract_i

"AGI within 18 months" explained with a boatload of papers and projects
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXQ6OKSvzfc

Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI
https://lifearchitect.ai/agi/

7 AI-Experts Predicting Short Timelines… Is Life-Changing AI Months Away, Not Years?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse..../7-ai-experts-predic

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
https://www.metaculus.com/ques....tions/5121/date-of-a

Shane Legg (DeepMind Founder) - 2028 AGI, Superhuman Alignment, New Architectures
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc1atfJkiJU

Google AI Chief Says There’s a 50% Chance We’ll Hit AGI in Just 5 Years
https://futurism.com/google-deepmind-agi-5-years

OpenAI CEO: When will AGI arrive? | Sam Altman and Lex Fridman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgN7ZYUxcXM

#agi #ai #singularity

0:00 Intro
0:23 Contents
0:28 Part 1: Definitions
0:58 AGI is about generality
1:29 Adversarial definitions of AGI
2:12 S-curves of technological progress
2:58 Hype cycle
3:22 Can LLMs take us all the way to AGI?
4:22 Part 2: Historical attitudes
4:44 LLMs changed people's predictions
5:03 Linear view of history
5:39 Example: one year before the singularity
6:03 Discounting linear predictions
6:40 Timeline: Metaculus average
7:05 Timeline: Oxford economic modeling
7:54 Wisdom of crowd says 2032, 2041...
8:19 Part 3: Timeline predictions
8:28 Geoffrey Hinton: godfather of AI (under 20 years)
9:03 Ray Kurzweil: futurist, studies advancement of technology (2029)
9:33 David Shapiro: YouTuber and researcher (2024)
10:12 Sam Altman: CEO of OpenAI (under 10 years)
10:53 Shane Legg: DeepMind founder (2025/2028)
11:23 Dario Amodei: CEO of Anthropic (2025-2026)
11:46 Dr Alan D. Thompson: countdown to AGI (2024-2025 maybe 2026)
12:44 Measuring stepping stones to AGI
13:15 Dr Waku prediction!
14:05 Conclusion
14:38 Outro